2013-10-15 Council Workshop Nav. New NormalCITY OF MENDOTA HEIGHTS
CITY COUNCIL WORKSHOP AGENDA
October 15, 2013 – 5:00 p.m.
Mendota Heights City Hall
1. Call to Order
2. Navigating the New Normal Presentation
10/10/2013
1
1
About ULI MN
ULI Minnesota actively
engages public and private
sector leaders to foster
collaboration, share
knowledge and join in
meaningful strategic action
to create thriving,
sustainable communities.
Regional Council of Mayors
•Minneapolis, Saint Paul
and 48 other
municipalities, in the
developed and
developing suburbs, are
represented in RCM.
•Collaborative, non-
partisan, solution-
oriented
10/10/2013
2
Our Strategic Issue Areas
New
Normal
Demographics
Preferences
Jobs/Income
Energy &
Commodities
5
“We must realize that it is not a
temporary depression, but a
New Normal and adjust
ourselves accordingly”
10/10/2013
3
"These things usually creep along at the speed of a
glacier. Not so with aging. In demographic
terms, this is a tsunami. It doesn't get much
bigger than this……“
Thomas Gillaspy, Former MN State Demographer
7
Growth in # -Older Households
•1,112,879 -Occupied Housing Units (2011) in 7-Co. Area
•+65,083 –Net Household Change (2004-2011)
8Population Characteristics are Changing
Source: ULI MN Community Change Data; Excensus, LLC –2004-2010
2011
Gen Y represents the greatest magnitude and spending power
Overall, it is estimated
that Gen Y influences
“as much as half of all
spending in the U.S.
economy”
Over 35% of Gen Ys
households earn
above
$1.6 trillion
They represent
In earning power
Representsalmost 30% of today’s population
$75,000
Over
Gen Ys today (1979-96)
million80
Baby Boomers (1946-64)
million~75
Robert Charles Lesser & Co. LLC.
9Demographics
10/10/2013
4
10Preferences
Baby Boomers seeking active lifestyles, more interaction
National Association of Realtors, Smart Growth America. 2004.
Robert Charles Lesser Company.
Boomers have made “third places” like Starbucks, Barnes and Noble, and
Borders their “community center”
11Preferences
Gen Y seeks diversity, walk ability, and proximity to jobs
Gen Y will begin to shift toward homeownership
in 2012, if affordable
In-town areas and inner suburbs will remain on an upward trajectory
2/3 say that living in a walk able
community is important
1/3 will pay more to walk to
shops, work, and
entertainment
Robert Charles Lesser & Co. LLC.
12Preferences
41% -plan to rent for
at least 3 years.
77% -plan to live in
urban walkable area.
47% -non-white
10/10/2013
5
13 Preferences
14 Preferences
15 Preferences
10/10/2013
6
16
Change in Housing Choice
Preferences
17Preferences
Housing Supply/Demand Mismatch
National figures in thousands of occupied residential units. “Supply” based on American Housing Survey (2010).
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor and Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah. Adapted from Arthur C. Nelson, “Leadership in a New Era”,
Journal of the American Planning Association (2006). Updated, 2011
18Preferences
Attached Small LotLarge Lot
10/10/2013
7
Potential Impacts to
Cities
•Shifts in demand for
local goods/services
•Shrinking local tax
bases/ school impact
•Job markets impacts &
transportation systems
•Demand for New
Housing Types
?????
Mendota Heights
Community Change
20
21
Household Distribution % Change
04-11
27%
-22%
32%
20%
-4%
4%Total Household Change 04-11
10/10/2013
8
What Type of Homes do Mendota Heights
Residents Live in?(2011)
Source: ULI MN Community Change Data; Excensus, LLC –2004-2011.
AllHH’s
74%
19%
7%
HH
<Age 35
54%
19%
28%
Comparison Owner/Renter
All HH/Young HH
13%
60%
40%
Owner Renter
HH all Ages
HH < Age 35
87%
23
Where did Mendota Heights ResidentsMove?
City %
662 residents moved
(between 2004-2011) –2% of all HH’s MendotaHeights18%
Eagan, St. Paul13% each
Inver Grove Heights9%
Apple Valley, Lilydale, Minneapolis,,,,3% each
S. St. Paul, Eden Prairie, Burnsville, Bloomington, Cottage Grove,,,3% each
Source: Excensus, LLC, 2004-2011
2011 tax assessment value
> $300,000
24Source: ULI MN Community Change Data; Excensus, LLC –2011
$250,000 -
$299,000
$200,000 -
$249,000
< $200,000
Mendota Heights Single Family Home Tax Values
All HH’s
Under 35 HH’s
10/10/2013
9
Mendota Heights –Change in Primary Jobs
25
8,132
8,888
8,741 8,708
9,478
8,986
9,989
2005200620072008200920102011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment
Statistics (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011).
1,857 job growth
2005-2011
26
City of Mendota Heights
2011 -Top 5 Major Industry Sectors –% share % change
(05-11)
HealthCare & Social Assistance20%114%
Education Services 11%-20%
Transportation & Warehouse 10%26%
Finance & Insurance9%142%
Administration & Support8%53%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment
Statistics (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011).
Mendota Heights–Labor Force/Resident Workers
27
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment
Statistics (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011).
10/10/2013
10
Labor Pool
Commuting
28
Where Employees Come From & Residents Work
2011
City %
9,989 primary jobsSt. Paul 12%
Minneapolis 8%
Eagan 7%
..Inver Grove, Burnsville 4% each
Bloomington, Apple Valley, Mendota Heights, Lakeville,
Woodbury, West St. Paul 3% each
6,068 residents workingSt. Paul 20%
Minneapolis 14%
Bloomington 6%
Mendota Heights 5%
Eagan, Rochester, West St. Paul, Maplewood 3-4%each
29
Mendota Heights working residents 2011
Age Distribution –Primary Job
Under Age 3022%
30-5450%
Over 5428%
100%
Mendota Heights
working resident primarywages Under30
< $1,251 per mo19%48%
$1,251-$3,333 per mo23%33%
> $3,333 per mo58%19%
100%100%
30
Impact of the New Normal
How will Mendota Heights Respond?
•Changing demographics and housing preferences
will impact the supply and demand for new housing
choices.
•Future residents will likely desire walkability, access
to services closer to home and less time driving.
•Difficulty in accessing private capital increases the
complexity of (re)development.
10/10/2013
11
31
Industry Leader
Panel Discussion